Virginia: The Final Word

BEFORE



Just to get a little perspective as the spinmeisters and professional punditry weigh-in on last nights historic election in Virginia - let's look at what they were saying Before the results came in:

llegals hot topic at Va. Polls

By Seth McLaughlin and Gary Emerling
November 6, 2007

Voters across Virginia are heading to the polls today to elect all 140 members of the General Assembly and to vote for local lawmakers, including several in Northern Virginia who have been in the forefront of the debate on illegal aliens.

Washington Times

Tomorrow's a Big Test of How the Issue of Immigration Plays

Tomorrow is Election Day. Here in Virginia, 140 state legislative seats are at stake.

Our airwaves have been dominated in recent days with campaign ads. Interestingly, just about all of them mention immigration, and none of them accuse the opponent of being too harsh….

Tomorrow will be an interesting test case on the power of the immigration issue...

If Republicans exceed expectations - and things have looked pretty gloomy for the state GOP in recent cycles - and the issue of illegal immigration is key, you will hear a lot about that issue from coast to coast next year.

National Review

Immigration, Democratic Shift Compete to Steer Va. Elections

Candidates for the Virginia General Assembly entered the final sprint yesterday toward a hard-fought election Tuesday in which two major forces are likely to determine which party controls the Senate: the resurgence of Democrats in vote-rich Northern Virginia, and the Republican advantage in the emotional debate over illegal immigration.

…Republicans have benefited in recent weeks from the growing intensity in the immigration debate. They have promised to block illegal immigrants from obtaining more public services and to do more to start deportation proceedings against them, particularly those who have committed crimes.

…If the election turns on the immigration issue… it could put Democrats under pressure in the coming year to appear responsive on that issue without alienating immigrants, who traditionally have made up an important part of the party's base.

Washington Post

As compared with what they were saying today After the Republican's lost control of the Senate and three seats in the House:

AFTER

In the Ballot Booths, No Fixation on Immigration

Voters across Virginia chose candidates in state and local elections yesterday not out of anger over illegal immigration but based on party affiliation, a preference for moderation and strong views on such key issues as residential growth and traffic congestion.

With a few notable exceptions, the trend benefited Democrats and not those who campaigned the loudest for tough sanctions against illegal immigrants.

Washington Post

Immigration, Proving Not a Silver Bullet For the GOP

Not a great Election Day for Republicans yesterday. We can argue about how big illegal immigration will play in next year's elections nationwide, but based on yesterday, it seems clear the issue won't be a silver bullet for Republicans.

National Review

Virginia Dems take control

By Seth McLaughlin and Gary Emerling
November 7, 2007

Virginia Democrats last night won control of the state Senate for the first time in a dozen years by taking four seats previously held by Republicans, including two hotly contested races in Northern Virginia.
Washington Times

So much for the wisdom coming out of the Washington pundits in the MSM...not to mention the Republican strategists.

...oh yeah, lets not forget Rahm Emanuel and the boyz over at Jimmy Carville's much quoted Democracy Corps ...I tip my hat to all of you for having your fingers so firmly planted on the pulse of the American public....By the way, did any of you happen to see the newest poll from Newsweek?

You know... the one that says that 93% of registered voters don't think immigration will be an important factor in determining who they will support... for... President... in 2008 ... Jimmy?... Rahm? ... are you still there? ........ Hey where'd Y'all go?

Read More...

Summary only...

Immigrant-Bashing Strategy fails in Virginia Election

The results are in on one of the first statewide tests of a Republican campaign strategy to use immigrant-bashing as an electoral wedge, and it appears the plan has gone down in flames. Trying to distract voters from not only pressing local concerns but a national dissatisfaction with Republican policies, many Virginia Republicans tied their campaigns to a strong anti-immigrant message.

Jittery Virginia Republicans, whose grip on state politics has been weakening steadily for several years, are facing further setbacks in this fall's elections for the General Assembly, possibly including the end of GOP control of the Senate for the first time in nearly a decade. In their desperation for a vote-getter, they have seized on the whipping boy of illegal immigration, which they blame for ills ranging from the erosion of the commonwealth's values to the difficulty of being admitted to state colleges.

...It's an ugly strategy and certainly not one unique to Virginia. It seeks to distract voters from core state issues such as transportation, fiscal prudence and good governance.

Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2007

But the strategy seems to have failed - with Republicans losing control of the commonwealth's Senate and several House seats.

Democrats Win Key Senate Races in Virginia
Governor Says Party Will Control Senate, Pick Up Some House Seats

Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) claimed victory last night in the legislative elections, saying his party had seized control of the state Senate and made historic gains in the House of Delegates.

In a speech to Democratic Party activists at a hotel in Tysons Corner, Kaine hailed the political changes that have swept through Virginia, beginning with the election of Gov. Mark R. Warner in 2001, his own election four years later and last year's victory by U.S. Sen. James Webb.

…snip…

In an interview moments later, Kaine said Democrats picked up four seats in the Senate, with two races still outstanding.

In claiming the Senate, Democrats prepared to install longtime Fairfax Sen. Richard L. Saslaw as majority leader and seize the chairmanships of key committees that control social legislation, crime issues, land-use and transportation policy.

Saslaw said the results proved that efforts by Republicans to focus voter attention on illegal immigration did not work.

"I did not think that immigration in and of itself would carry the day," Saslaw said. "The results are proving that while immigration is a concern to people -- and it should be -- it is not returning the votes that they thought that it would."

However, in Prince William, Republican Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart succeeded in winning reelection after making illegal immigration a focus of the campaign. He had led the board to impose tough sanctions on illegal immigrants, making national news.

Robert D. Holsworth, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, said the "decline of the Republican brand" rallied Democratic activists, bringing forward credible Democratic candidates and attracting hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions to Democratic campaigns.

Washington Post

Although Republican, Corey Stewart, poster-boy for the anti-immigrant Right, did manage to retain his position as Chairman of the Prince Williams County Board of Supervisors by running perhaps the most virulent anti-immigrant campaign yet seen, the strategy didn't pay off with the kind of big numbers that should lead Republican strategists to try to replicate his tactics on any national scale.

Stewart's 2% rise in the polls since last year's run can hardly be seen as an overwhelming vindication for a strategy that failed to gain any traction outside the confines of Prince William County, and very well might have caused backlash in some of the state's other key races.

Prince William Board of Supervisors Chairman

2006 results

Corey A. Stewart-----44,519----53%
Sharon E. Pandak-----38,710----47%

link

2007 results

Corey A. Stewart-----30,318----55%
Sharon E. Pandak-----24,336----45%

link

If the Republicans were looking at immigrant-bashing as a silver bullet to stem the national tide against them, surely tonight's results in Virginia should give them second thoughts.

Read More...

Summary only...

Of Manassas and Guernica, tomorrow's battle in Virginia

On April 26, 1937, twenty-four bombers of the German Luftwaffe "Condor Legion" with the help of a subordinate Italian expeditionary force, dropped forty tons of bombs, on the town of Guernica in the Basque Country of Spain. Up to 1,600 people were killed and three quarters of the city's buildings were reported completely destroyed. The raid, called Operation Rügen, is generally viewed as the Luftwaffe's first test of the tactics of terror-bombing that would become the hallmark of the Nazi blitzkrieg as it swept through Europe two years later.

Just as Franco's Spain was used as a testing ground for the tactics, men and machines that would later wreak havoc on a global scale, tomorrow in Virginia, we will be witness to a test of a new blitzkrieg of sorts. The Republican Party will be testing, on a statewide basis, its latest strategy and weaponry for the coming 2008 election cycle… the immigration wedge.

Tomorrow is Election Day. Here in Virginia, 140 state legislative seats are at stake.

Our airwaves have been dominated in recent days with campaign ads. Interestingly, just about all of them mention immigration, and none of them accuse the opponent of being too harsh….

Tomorrow will be an interesting test case on the power of the immigration issue...

If Republicans exceed expectations - and things have looked pretty gloomy for the state GOP in recent cycles - and the issue of illegal immigration is key, you will hear a lot about that issue from coast to coast next year.

National Review

Back in September, an opinion piece in the Washington post summed up the coming fight:

Jittery Virginia Republicans, whose grip on state politics has been weakening steadily for several years, are facing further setbacks in this fall's elections for the General Assembly, possibly including the end of GOP control of the Senate for the first time in nearly a decade. In their desperation for a vote-getter, they have seized on the whipping boy of illegal immigration, which they blame for ills ranging from the erosion of the commonwealth's values to the difficulty of being admitted to state colleges.

William J. Howell, the Republican speaker of the House of Delegates, worried aloud the other day about the presence of so many newcomers in the Old Dominion. Mr. Howell said that the state's newest residents, particularly in Northern Virginia, may not embrace "the shared values we have in Virginia," according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch. He didn't specify which "shared values" he had in mind, nor did he draw a distinction between legal and illegal newcomers.

A week earlier, he unveiled the GOP's immigrant-bashing agenda for the legislative session that will begin in January….

…snip…

It's an ugly strategy and certainly not one unique to Virginia. It seeks to distract voters from core state issues such as transportation, fiscal prudence and good governance.

Washington Post

Nowhere is the fight uglier than at its epicenter, in Northern Virginia's Prince William County.



This past weekend the Post again looked at what's shaping up to be the 3rd battle of Manassas.

Candidates for the Virginia General Assembly entered the final sprint yesterday toward a hard-fought election Tuesday in which two major forces are likely to determine which party controls the Senate: the resurgence of Democrats in vote-rich Northern Virginia, and the Republican advantage in the emotional debate over illegal immigration.

…Democrats have maintained all year that the Republicans' 23-17 majority in the Senate is in jeopardy. Although Democrats don't expect to take control of the Republican-heavy House of Delegates, they think they can gain as many as six seats.

…But Republicans have benefited in recent weeks from the growing intensity in the immigration debate. They have promised to block illegal immigrants from obtaining more public services and to do more to start deportation proceedings against them, particularly those who have committed crimes.

Which force prevails Tuesday -- the state's Democratic tide or sentiment against illegal immigration -- will set the tone for next year's crucial battle for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Republican John W. Warner…

…Tuesday also could determine how important Virginia will be in next year's presidential contest. A continuing surge by Democrats could put the state in play in presidential politics for the first time in a generation.

If the election turns on the immigration issue, however, it could put Democrats under pressure in the coming year to appear responsive on that issue without alienating immigrants, who traditionally have made up an important part of the party's base.

Washington Post

"It's a tough issue to solve," said Sen. Charles J. Colgan (D-Manassas), who has become one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the year, in large measure because of the immigration debate

Nowhere has the immigration debate become louder than in suburban Prince William County. Colgan, 81, soft-spoken and well-liked in Richmond,… and such a close friend to Sens. John H. Chichester (R-Northumberland) and H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester) that the two have crossed party lines to endorse him.

Colgan enjoyed such advantages that Democrats never guessed earlier in the year that he would be so vulnerable. The change came after his opponent, Republican Robert S. Fitzsimmonds, 55, began accusing Colgan of not being tough enough against illegal immigration.

…

Similar issues have dominated local races. Corey L. Stewart, chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, has led the charge against elected officials he believes aren't doing enough to crack down on illegal immigration.

Washington Post

Tuesday's election will most likely set the tone for the Republican strategy for the next 12 months. If voices like these win out, who preach a twisted vision of morality and law, we can expect 12 months of continuous hate and fear. One listen to Greg Letiecq of "Help Save Manassas" explain how he's doing God's work and express his views on slavery and other topics should be enough to scare any rational person.



If they fail, and the Republican Juggernaut is stopped dead in its tracks, it will be a victory for reason, compassion, and true American values.

Read More...

Summary only...